Thanksgiving is often the first major reflection point of the NHL season.
It’s the first league-wide break on the schedule, and since the 2005-06 season, 76.7 percent of teams that have been in playoff position when the turkey got carved were still there come April.
There are some notable exceptions. Last season, the Edmonton Oilers were also just one of three teams to go from below the cutline to above it by the end of the regular season. They then rode that turnaround to the Stanley Cup Final.
That’s why this week is an ideal time to evaluate where the Stars sit in the NHL landscape. So, as we like to do at D, we reached out to NHL scouts and coaches around the league for their anonymous takes.
Standings wise the Stars are currently third in the Central Division after a 6-4 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on Monday and rank eighth in the NHL in points percentage, humming along at .650 rate.
On the ice, the Stars are one of the league’s stingiest defensive team, ranking fourth in the league in goals against average and ranking seventh in shots against.
“I think the strength of that team, and this isn’t too much of a surprise, is how they are already locking teams down the way I think they’ll have to in the spring,” one NHL scout said. “A lot of that early credit went to [Jake] Oettinger, but they’ve been really good in my view of limiting how other teams attack them.”
Talking to multiple scouts, one thing that stood out was how the Stars have defended zone entries, particularly when the opponent attacks in waves. There have been some breakaways, too many in fact, but one scout pointed to that as a willing trade.
“They want to get up and go a bit, but don’t lose their defensive structure,” the scout said. “It’s impossible to be perfect in that realm, but there’s a good combination of reward vs. risk from what I’ve seen at the other end.”
The biggest concern scouts had was how opponents have been able to establish positioning in front of the net, which was notable last Saturday against the Tampa Bay Lightning, a game the Stars won 4-2.
“That’s the biggest loss of Chris Tanev,” an NHL assistant coach said. “They still haven’t found the way to protect the net like they did after that trade [last season]. “They’re still trying to find a balance, and I’m not sure if they have the pieces to make it what it was.”
On the other end of the ice, the offense has largely been driven by the line featuring Matt Duchene, Mason Marchment, and Tyler Seguin. That line has helped offset some of the inconsistencies from Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz.
Multiple scouts questioned how healthy Robertson is after his offseason foot procedure. One mentioned that while the 25-year-old doesn’t look hurt shift to shift, it does appear like he is conserving extra energy while on the ice.
The assistant coach I spoke with scoffed at that a bit, arguing Robertson is never going to be the most notable player during his shift. Rather, it’s whether he can make “four to five” impacts per game at each end.
“I see it sometimes,’ the coach said. “We prepped for them recently and saw it. With a player like that, you just need to see them playing well enough for most of the game to set up the bigger impact things.”
Although the Stars are trailing the Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Wild in the Central Division, they still remain a scary team in the eyes of others we spoke to. All of the panelists still viewed the Stars as one of the favorites in the Western Conference, and one said he still has Dallas as his top choice once the playoffs start.
“I think their schedule has been tougher than Winnipeg and Minnesota, truthfully,” the scout said. “I look at teams and how they might project into the spring and the playoffs. The Stars haven’t peaked, and not that Winnipeg and Minnesota have peaked, but I think the Stars have more room and potential.”
To expand on that, multiple scouts said that solidifying net-front defense was the biggest concern, and one noted that making an in-season trade, like the Tanev deal last season, would probably be necessary.
“I think we’ve seen Jim [Nill] be more aggressive about adding the right piece in season, which is something you can do with a team in that window and how they’ve found some internal solutions with younger players,” one scout said. “I would say they’re already a contender even without a move, but they have to think about how they are going to limit chances around the net in the playoffs.”
For the Stars, in that regard, there is room to be patient for the right deal, which is one of the luxuries of heading into Thanksgiving in playoff positioning. But whether or not Nill goes shopping, with five months until the postseason, Dallas has a lot of time to test what could work internally. That ought to provide plenty of holiday comfort this week.
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