Jason Kidd has often referred to the regular season serving as “test tube” or a “laboratory” for his team, as he tinkers with alchemy to perfect his potion for the playoffs. Starting and closing lineups, rotations, matchups, offensive and defensive sets; everything is on the table. Fourteen games into this Mavericks season, it is safe to say the Bunsen burners are hot, and protective eyewear is a must.
The Mavericks sit with a disheveled 7-7 record. They became just the third team since the 1979-80 season to lose four straight games by three points or less. They lost to a Jazz team that is not trying to win. They looked lifeless in a win over a Spurs team that was without its top two scorers. On the road a night later, with Washington back and Doncic out, they turned around and offered a (nearly) thorough effort over a Thunder team that was without Chet Holmgren.
As expected, there have been some spills and a few explosions. (To be honest, that’s as far as I can take this chemistry metaphor.) Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are both still leading the team in minutes, and each has only missed one game (Irving sat out the Utah game, while Doncic did the same in the too-close win over Oklahoma City on Sunday due to a nagging knee injury(. P.J. Washington returned after a five-game absence. New additions Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall have logged the third- and fourth-most minutes, respectively. Dereck Lively II missed four games. Spencer Dinwiddie and Quentin Grimes, both offseason acquisitions, are in the top 10 in minutes per game as they fight for floor time. Maxi Kleber has only played in four games.
Some alterations to the starting lineup and rotation have been a result of injury and availability (Marshall in the starting lineup), some to send a message (Grimes’ up-and-down playing time), and others to address pressing issues (Lively getting the nod over Daniel Gafford). This commotion makes it tough to get a bead on exactly who this team is, or rather, who these Mavericks want to be. Hovering ominously over this situation is the fact that Doncic has, for a player with his MVP-level standards, been disappointing. The question is to what degree are Doncic’s struggles a product of new teammates and a changed dynamic. Or do we blame his health issues? Or has he just been in a funk? Curiously, for a player who takes an absolute beating night in and night out, Doncic tends to increase his production as the season progresses, so there is little cause for panic. But if his struggles are mostly related to figuring out his new teammates and vice versa, that could be a problem, because I don’t think Kidd is anywhere near finished tinkering.
It might sound like denial given that the Mavericks sit at 10th in the Western Conference, but my opinion on this team hasn’t really changed from the preseason: this is a very good, championship-level group. However, the waters leaving port have certainly been choppier than I expected. First quarters and clutch situations have been a nightmare, and Doncic’s struggles give me some pause. The loss to the 3-10 Jazz and the first half of the win over the Spurs tested my faith. But I simply cannot bring myself to believe this is a team that will spiral. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but a team with a leader like this version of Irving does not have that in its DNA. I certainly have qualms with some of the decisions Kidd has made, but he has earned the right to lean into the “test tube” approach, and I begrudgingly accept it.
There is no “why is Javale McGee on this roster?” question to answer, no “Christian Wood issue” to resolve. The Mavericks have a deep group of the right kind of players who have struggled to find their sea legs. The problem, of course, is that this conference waits for no one.
Dallas ranks ninth in net rating (eighth on offense, ninth on defense). The underlying vitals are encouraging. On offense, counter-intuitive to what most of the league desires, the Mavericks take a ton of mid-range shots because they have elite mid-range shooters (third in frequency, fourth in efficiency, per cleaningtheglass.com). Defensively, they force a lot of contested mid-range shots (most teams do not have a Doncic and an Irving) and protect the rim fairly well when not giving up offensive rebounds. Irving is flipping the bird to Father Time and playing some of the best basketball of his life with a career-best 62.9 effective field goal percentage, including a laughable 52.1 percent from deep. Grimes and Marshall give this team an attacking element it hasn’t had in recent memory from its bench wings. When those two are on the floor together, watch out. In 181 possessions, they are a plus-14.9 per 100 possessions, which ranks in the 95th percentile in the league. Lineups with the duo are in the 100th percentile in transition frequency, and they score at a blinding rate on the break. Grimes’ minutes have been uneven as he figures things out and Kidd figures him out. But overall, those two additions have produced exceptional results.
Rebounding has been a seemingly unsolvable quandary: Dallas ranks 20th in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Last year, even after the trade deadline acquisitions of Gafford and Washington, the Mavs were average on the glass, but that was good enough. As our own Iztok Franko has pointed out, Gafford always has been a rebounding liability. Nevertheless, his presence at the rim on both ends is essential, so he is deservedly going to play a lot. But Lively should continue to start. The presence of Washington, with either big, will go a long way; the Mavericks’ rebounding numbers with Washington on the floor are considerably better than when he is not, both this season and last. (Against the Thunder, he had a career-high 17 rebounds to go along with 27 points.) Marshall started in Washington’s absence, and while he brings a ton to the lineup, rebounding is not in his bag. The team is markedly worse on the glass when he has played, largely because that is not his role.
It’s probably too early to make this call, but the issue is not Marshall in the starting lineup. Rather, he’s started games in place of the wrong player. As things stand, Thompson is simply not having a positive impact on winning. He’s shooting a career-low 35.6 percent from beyond the arc, a season after shooting a career-low 38.7 percent from deep with Golden State. By way of comparison, Tim Hardaway Jr. shot 35.5 from three last season on a third of the number of attempts. The looks are not the issue, according to the eye test or the data: Thompson has been on the receiving end of the best potential shot attempts of his career, per Second Spectrum. Many of us were worried about his deteriorating defense, but that has been fine. We also assumed his role on offense would be a seamless fit, that the looks would be great, that he would knock down shots at least the rate he did last year. That is just not happening.
Shooters have to shoot, and I understand giving Thompson time. (Here’s our Brian Dameris with the case for that.) But that time is rapidly evaporating. Marshall has been awful from three, but he doesn’t take many of those shots. Even without that, his defense, passing, attacking, and efficiency on two-point shots make him a more effective player than Thompson right now.
Sorting through this situation will provide an answer to an existential question about what this team wants to be. This is why you have a coach with Kidd’s makeup. The players respect him as a legend. Thompson bristled at a bench role in Golden State, but there was so much baggage and history there that the comparisons are moot. Perhaps simply having Lively start and Washington in the lineup will shore up most of what has ailed the Mavericks. But my suspicion is that larger changes are coming.
Most cliches are true, and this really is a “make-or-miss league.” However, having players in their proper roles leads to crisper execution, which leads to more makes and forced misses. The Mavericks could easily have two or three more wins. The margin of error for a contender in this conference is unnervingly thin. But this roster has the juice it needs. It will again be on Kidd and his staff to perfect the formula. The sooner, the better.
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