Jake Oettinger has never been shy about his aspirations.
The Stars goalie has a not-subtle confidence when evaluating himself, and on multiple occasions he has said he wants to be considered one of the best goalies in the world. It’s an internal and external motivator. That lofty goal is one of the ways Oettinger pushes himself, how he wants others to judge him, and how he finds the next level of his game.
But to be the best goalie in the world, you also have to be the best goalie from your country. And as an American, the first half of the 2024-25 season comes with an added opportunity to prove that.
See, for the first time since the 2016 World Cup of Hockey, there will be best-on-best international hockey featuring NHL players when the NHL 4 Nation Face-Off is held In February between Canada, Finland, Sweden, and the United States. The rosters have already begun to be built; Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell were among the first six players named to Team Finland back in June. National team staffs are gathering this month to start building the rest of the rosters.
Of those four teams, the Americans have the deepest goaltending pool, considering a group of four top-tier starters are competing for three roster spots. Heading into the 2024-25 season, Oettinger looks like the odd man out.
Connor Hellebuyck, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and a two-time recipient of the award, is the presumptive starter. Jeremy Swayman dazzled in the Stanley Cup playoffs for the Boston Bruins, with a .933 save percentage in a dozen games, and has quickly climbed the charts in the minds of the U.S. braintrust.
Thatcher Demko was injured in the playoffs, but the Vancouver Canucks goalie was second only to Helleybuck in the regular season when it came to save percentage among starting goalies. Demko finished second in the Vezina Trophy voting.
Meanwhile, Oettinger really struggled for the first time in his career last season, which oddly was the first time he was selected to an All-Star Game. Oettinger’s save percentage dipped to .905 – .014 lower than in 2022-23 – and of his 54 starts he had 10 really bad starts (games with a sub .850 save percentage), according to Hockey Reference.
Oettinger found better footing in the postseason, but had at least one ugly game in each of the three rounds, including allowing two goals on just 10 shots in Game 6 as Edmonton closed out Dallas in the Western Conference final.
To be clear, Oettinger was fine across the postseason, but if he had played up to his own lofty expectations, the Stars might have been playing the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final. It also doesn’t help the resume that Oettinger ran into a wall use-wise at the end of the 2023 playoffs, when the Stars also fell in the Western Conference Final.
He’s a very good goalie on a great team. To be part of Team USA, however, he’ll have to prove he’s a great goalie on a great team early next season. So what needs to change for that to happen?
It starts up top, as opponents have found more holes in Oettinger’s game. During the 2022-23 season, he stopped 87 percent of the shots he faced high blocker and 86 percent of the ones he faced high glove side, according to InStat. During the 2023-24 season, those numbers dropped to 80 and 81 percent, respectively.
For simpler math, Oettinger in 2022-23 allowed 59 combined high-glove and high-blocker goals (regular season and playoffs), and then allowed 85 in 2023-24, in 10 fewer games.
NHL teams scout goalies heavily. This may be news to some reading this column, but around the league the book is out that you beat Oettinger by going high. Consider what happened in the Western Conference final. Of the 13 goals the Oilers scored in the series, eight came on shots above the glove and blocker.
Oettinger and Stars goalie coach Jeff Reese now have the job of rewriting the book.
If Oettinger can do that, he could represent his country in the best-on-best competition. Why does that matter for the Stars? Because being one of the top three American goalies in the NHL means Oettinger is also most likely a top-five goalie on the planet.
We’ve seen that form, in spurts and flashes, including in the legendary series against the Calgary Flames, but sustained excellence at that level over three to four months to earn a spot on Team USA? That would turn the Stars from a contender to the favorite in the Western Conference.
Just imagine this Stars team, with the forward depth and puck-moving defenders having that level of safety net behind them. It unlocks everything by allowing for a more aggressive approach. It very much mimics how Andrei Vasiliskiy helped the Tampa Bay Lightning win back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and ’21.
It would also make Oettinger an even wealthier man.
Oettinger is entering the final year of a three-year contract that pays him an annual value of $4 million against the salary cap. If he proves he’s truly one of the best goalies in the world, that number could rise substantially. Flirting with $6 million or $7 million against the salary cap is both reasonable and within the Stars’ long-term cap flexibility.
Playing well enough to be selected for Team USA would certainly help that case.
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