Jake Oettinger was an All-Star last year, but as is often the case with All-Star selections in most sports, it wasn’t a merit-based selection.
Despite their deep playoff run last spring, the Stars’ starting goalie had the worst statistical season of his four-year career, saving just 90.5 percent of the shots he faced after being in the 92 percent range in the previous three years.
To his credit, Oettinger turned it up a notch in the playoffs, but getting back to his career average wasn’t enough to overcome Edmonton’s offense (and the Stars’ lack of it) in the Western Conference Finals. So coming into this season, he had a couple of things to prove.
First and foremost, Oettinger had to prove that last year’s downturn was merely a blip, the consequence of a surprise July 2023 ankle surgery that shortened his preseason and sabotaged his usual preparation.
Second, Oettinger had to show he can still steal a playoff series the way he almost did in 2022 against Calgary, when he stopped more than 95 percent of the Flames’ shots to turn what should’ve been a short series into a seven-game thriller, the deciding game going to overtime only because Oettinger stopped 64 shots.
Oettinger won’t have the opportunity to answer the latter question until April, but through the Stars’ first four games, he’s making last year look like an anomaly. The 26-year-old is 3-0-0 with a shutout and a .948 save percentage, which is good for second in the NHL, trailing only Connor Hellebuyck, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner. For a goaltender who only had three shutouts in the regular season last year, it’s every bit the start he needed.
“You just wanna get the season going the right way,” Oettinger said after his shutout on Saturday. “A lot of things need to go right, and you never take it for granted, so… pretty cool.”
One of the things going the right way might have to do with the calendar, as Oettinger has been notoriously strong in October, with a record of 11-1-1.
Last year that record was fueled more by the offense than stingy goaltending. This year, however, Oettinger has been one of the Stars’ best players in each of the three games he has played.
And that’s a good thing, because he has had to be, as the defense hasn’t settled into its usual rhythm. Although the sample size is small, as of Wednesday, the Stars were 27th in the league in terms of expected goals allowed at 5-on-5, which is in stark contrast to last year, when they had the second-stingiest even-strength defense in the NHL. Maybe that will round into form as the year gets going—certainly the Stars have earned some of the benefit of the doubt after Western Conference finals appearances in consecutive seasons—but it’s something to keep a cautious eye on.
To Oettinger’s credit, he and backup Casey DeSmith, who shut out Seattle in his lone appearance, have papered over the Stars’ issues at even-strength. In fact, the goaltenders have allowed fewer than half of the goals a goaltender would be expected to allow on average, given the chances the Stars have given up.
The Stars have been providing some run support for Oettinger, but only at even-strength, as the power play has yet to get going, much like last year. However, the penalty kill has been terrific at the outset… much like last year.
In fact, the Stars have allowed just a single power play goal in 14 chances, including a sparkling 5-on-3 penalty kill for the better part of two minutes against San Jose on Tuesday when Esa Lindell and company didn’t let a puck get through to Oettinger. It’s easy to keep pucks out of your net when they don’t get there to begin with, and that’s encouraging for a defense that lost Chris Tanev to free agency over the summer.
Matt Dumba was supposed to be one of the “nasty” additions bolstering Oettinger’s defense this season, but his unfortunate injury on Saturday meant the Stars have already had to ask for regular minutes from Brendan Smith, who profiled as their seventh defenseman after his acquisition this summer.
Smith has factored into the successful penalty kill, but the bigger addition to that unit has been free-agent pickup Ilya Lyubushkin, whom Jim Nill brought in to replace the departed Jani Hakanpää, who missed the postseason with a knee injury. Lyubushkin has combined with the ever-present Lindell to lead the penalty kill, and the duo has gotten the Stars off to a hot start when it comes to neutralizing the opponent’s best players on the power play.
But even with the new defensemen, not to mention newcomers like Colin Blackwell, it’s the goaltending that has taken the Stars from good to great. Oettinger leads the NHL in goals saved above average on the penalty kill, and no game was more representative of that than the season opener in Nashville. Oettinger allowed his first goal of the season on a power play, but that may have only strengthened his resolve, as the Predators’ other five power plays came up empty despite pelting Oettinger with 13 shots. He has not allowed another goal on 11 penalty kills since.
By rights, the Stars should probably be sitting at .500, but Oettinger got them going with standout performances against Nashville and the Islanders, and they haven’t looked back.
Yes, we’re not even five percent of the way into the season, but with other teams scrambling to answer hard questions before things get out of hand, Oettinger has given Dallas the luxury of taking its time. That’s a valuable position to be in, especially when it comes to managing players’ health over the course of a long season. Tyler Seguin missed Tuesday’s game with a lower body injury the team is calling “day to day,” although Pete DeBoer acknowledged that had it been a playoff game, Seguin probably would have played.
But because the Stars have been as successful as a team can possibly be, Seguin can rest for a long season. DeSmith’s play means Oettinger should be able to get regular time off as well, which is just as crucial for the Stars’ playoff hopes.
For now, the Stars can only pile up regular-season victories. Three of those wins have come with Oettinger’s name attached, and this time, he has merited every one of the accolades.
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