Before last season, I wrote that Dereck Lively II would be ready to play a major role faster than most anticipated. Why wouldn’t he? Lively was an elite defensive prospect hiding in plain sight, and his maturity would afford him the opportunity to mesh well with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Yes, he was young. No, most 19-year-old centers don’t come out of the gates hot. But the more I looked at his profile, the more confident I became that Lively would be an outlier.
Turns out I didn’t go far enough. Optimistic as I was, even I did not anticipate Lively becoming a high-level starter and the third-best player on a Finals team. Rookie centers aren’t supposed to contribute to winning on a title contender. It’s essentially unprecedented. There is no good comparison for Lively’s rookie year to help determine the height of his ceiling. Lively logged the third-most minutes in a playoff run for a rookie big man in NBA history. He’s the first rookie center to play meaningful minutes in a Finals series since 1993. As far as expectations go, Lively swims in uncharted waters.
Lively, and the discourse around him, now bear the weight of unfettered expectations. When you squint, it’s easy to see any version of a modern big man in your imagination. He only made one three-pointer in the Finals, and that alone has fueled visions of Lively becoming a dynamic stretch 5 for years to come. In the preseason he had a coast-to-coast layup that revved X into a frenzy by way of —albeit a bit farfetched—a comparison to Giannis Antetokounmpo. Furthermore, Lively fundamentally understands what the game requires of him and where his impact can be most felt. His game clearly impacts winning, yet he’s also able to expand his abilities to meet new challenges quickly. Entering his rookie season, there were questions concerning his ability to set quality screens to become a useful pick-and-roll partner. Those were eradicated just a month into the season, when Lively grew into the best pick-and-roll partner Doncic has had in his career. Lively’s ability to understand what’s required of him while improving in real time is an accelerant for growth, leading to new abilities and skill sets that take most young big men years to develop—if they develop them at all.
His game has earned the right to let imaginations run wild, but it might be useful to narrow the scope on how his skill set will scale and ultimately manifest once he reaches his prime. That’s right: I, one of the most ardent Lively agenda pushers in existence, am telling everyone to slow their roll.
Lively could be a future All-Star, but his production may not be enough over the next two seasons because of the superstars with whom he must share the ball. And, because, of course, there are only so many All-Star spots in This League. If his rookie season was about nailing the fundamentals core to a rim-running big man, this year must tease out the ancillary skills that could make him one of the league’s most important centers. Can Lively become a threat from beyond the arc? Can he become a consistent finisher in the low post? Will his passing acumen allow him to become an effective hub in the middle of the floor?
Lively, rightfully so, receives constant comparisons to Tyson Chandler. In the future, we should be comparing him to Joakim Noah, a winning player on both sides of the ball who grew as a passer throughout his career to take on more playmaking responsibilities. (The team apparently agrees with me.) Dallas certainly isn’t short on playmaking talent, of course, but using Lively to lighten the playmaking burden on Luka and Kyrie would allow the superstar duo to expend more energy on defense. It would make Dallas a better, more well-rounded team. Just don’t expect Lively’s box scores to pop along with it. Noah’s statistical profile wasn’t marked by gaudy production, after all. In 2014, his best season, he averaged 12.6 points per game, 11.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists, with 1.5 blocks and 1.4 steals per game. Noah still made multiple All Star games, All Defensive teams, and won a Defensive Player of the Year award. The stars even aligned in his peak season to land him on the All-NBA First Team. It just took time.
Lively’s trajectory should follow a similar path to Noah’s. He doesn’t have the overpowering strength or scoring prowess to be a guy who averages 22 and 12 every night, but his fingerprints will spread across the stat sheet. His impact will be undeniable. He has all the ingredients to become a special player who continues to impact winning. And, hey, if his jumper does turn out to be a real thing, his ceiling might be too high for us to eyeball.
The expectations for Lively’s second year look very different than when he entered the league 12 months ago. A player once deemed capable of helping a lottery team get back to the playoffs is now a star-in-waiting on a roster that got within three games of winning the NBA title. Just know that progress isn’t linear. Lively is worthy of the hype. He’s also worthy of a little bit of patience, too.
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