There hasn’t been this much excitement leading up to a Mavericks season since 2006. A trip to the Finals last season has given fans a taste of the good life, and now they want to see their team take the final step. The Mavs responded to the disappointment of their Finals loss by finally landing that coveted free agent, in this case Klay Thompson. While the preseason provided some interesting takeaways, there’s only so much to chew on considering Luka Doncic didn’t play a second and the minutes of key contributors were limited. That means Dallas still has plenty of pressing questions remaining heading into tonight’s season opener against Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs.
Here’s what to keep an eye on as the Mavs attempt to finish the job:
What will Thompson’s impact be?
Nico Harrison said last week that last year’s team was “a Klay away.” So he went out and got him. Thompson has a chip on his shoulder with something to prove. He came here because he knew he would be a perfect fit—heard about the welcoming culture and wants to win. All of those things bring joy to his game.
Remember that it wasn’t the defense that failed the Mavs in their Finals loss to the Celtics. Dallas failed to crack 100 points in all four losses, as Boston collapsed its defense on Doncic and Kyrie Irving and dared the Mavericks to shoot threes. Those shots didn’t fail.
We know Thompson can shoot, but let’s dig in a bit and see just how well he does and how that will fit in this system. The Mavs attempted the most corner threes in the league last year, but hit them at a rate (36.5 percent) that was only 28th best. They left a ton of meat on the bone. Over the last nine years of his career (NBA tracking data only goes back that far) in the regular season and the playoffs, when the opponent is better and defenses are tighter, Thompson has hit corner threes at a 43.1 percent rate, accounting for 23.5 percent of all his made threes. Last season, in what some consider an off-year, he hit them at 40.2 percent clip. The Mavs’ system is designed to maximize corner threes, and the belief is that Thompson will get even better looks with Doncic and Irving commanding so much attention.
Thompson hit 219 catch-and-shoot threes last year, second-most in the league. In fact, 81 percent of his threes are of the catch-and-shoot variety, and he has made 42.2 percent over the last nine seasons, including 40.6 percent and 38.1 percent over the last two seasons. In 77 games last season, he scored 24 or more points 21 times, and he shot better than 40 percent from deep in 36 games.
But it’s not just his shot; it’s also how defenses will have to pay attention to him and what that will mean for spacing. Thompson will be a facilitator, finding open cutters and delivering lobs to the big men. Defenses won’t be able to double anyone. And when he plays with Irving while Doncic sits, Dallas could run some sets from the Warriors system as the ball and bodies move more. The offense will indeed be supercharged.
So, what about the defense?
The run to the Finals started in early March on the backs of a suffocating defense that led the league, walled off the paint, and protected the rim. The best evidence of this came in the playoffs, especially in the series against the Thunder and Timberwolves. Derrick Jones Jr. drew the assignment of guarding the opponent’s best perimeter player. He left in free agency, so how will the new-look Mavs maintain the defensive intensity? Expect to see more switching, as Dereck Lively II showed in the preseason he can guard in space. We will also see some zone, and the core concept of funneling players to the tall trees protecting the basket will continue.
Thompson will play at the 3 when Doncic and Irving are on the floor, but he will get plenty of time at the 2 when one of them is off the floor, too. If last season is any indication, that could matter quite a bit; the Warriors’ defensive numbers improved when Thompson played the 2. But regardless of where Thompson lines up and how he holds up on that end, his spacing and shooting should make him a net asset. After all, as Jason Kidd is fond of saying, an improved offense will also be the Mavs’ best defense.
Who is the X-factor?
The Mavericks would not have made the Finals without P.J. Washington. A trade-deadline acquisition, he was challenged by Nico Harrison to be a defensive stopper, and he stood on business. This season, Washington will be the player opponents cheat off of defensively in a pick your poison scenario. And without Jones, he will be tasked with the toughest perimeter and ballhandling assignment defensively. It’s a tall order, but Washington knows what is expected of him. He said last week his goals are to shoot 40 percent from 3 and make an All-NBA Defense team. His importance can’t be overstated.
What can we expect from Lively and Daniel Gafford?
Last year in the early parts of the series against the Clippers and Thunder, defenders cheated off of shooters and bracketed the two big men in an attempt to take away the lob. With Thompson on the floor as a shooting threat, that will be harder. That’s also because the lob isn’t the big men’s only offensive weapon anymore. In the preseason, Lively showed he can attack the switch in the post with both hands, and in the preseason finale against the Bucks, he displayed some nifty running floaters. Both centers can also facilitate from the elbow.
Yes, we saw a corner three from Lively in the Finals, but let’s not get carried away. He and Gafford will both get starts. They will rotate in six-minute chunks, and the player having the best game will close.
What will the rotation look like?
The top six is set with Doncic, Irving, Thompson, Washington, Lively, and Gafford. Newcomers Marshall and Grimes round out the top eight. Maxi Kleber will be the backup at the 4, and with Dante Exum sidelined for a couple of months by a wrist injury that required surgery, it looks like Jaden Hardy will take the backup guard minutes over Spencer Dinwiddie. He’ll have a chance to keep them for a while, too: Hardy signed a three-year, $18 million extension on Monday.
Marshall is more physical than Jones and can guard all positions. And he has handles on the offensive end. Grimes, a career 37 percent shooter from deep, isn’t afraid of the moment. He can defend, and when his shot wasn’t falling against the Bucks, he found another way to be useful, grabbing 10 rebounds.
Hardy will have two roles. When playing with Doncic or Irving as an additional ball-handler, he will be tasked with attacking the basket and scoring, sucking in defenses by lobbing and creating for others, and hitting threes (40 percent in the preseason). When Doncic or Irving sits, Hardy will have to run the offense, not just score. After his playoff emergence and a strong camp, he appears to be ready for the challenge.
How should the Mavs approach the season?
Teams can go one of two ways after a Finals loss: get demoralized and take a downturn, or remember how the air feels near the mountaintop and do what it takes to make the rest of the climb. Expectations are high, and the Mavs are not shying away from them. This team has a championship mentality, and you don’t win without one. Sometimes it takes a loss to understand what it takes to go all the way.
Details, consistency, and staying connected matter, and this is what Kidd has been preaching at camp. When injuries inevitably crop up or rest is needed, depth will help the Mavs win regular-season games. The goal is to have a full gas tank and be healthy come mid-April. Aim for a top-four seed so you don’t have to chase every series on the road. The MVP usually comes a year after a banner season, and I see Doncic winning it and the Mavs claiming 54 victories.
The West is loaded again, but question marks abound elsewhere, too. The Thunder added the pieces they needed, but after having the healthiest team in the league last year, they already have been bitten with the news of Isaiah Hartenstein having to miss six weeks. How will the new-look Timberwolves perform? Is Denver losing a war of attrition? Do the Warriors and Lakers have another run in them? Are the Grizzlies back? Do the Kings bounce back with DeMar DeRozan? Are the Rockets ready to take the next step?
We can’t fast-forward to April, but I know two things. One, there will be ups and downs on the way there. Two, the Mavs’ success in answering their own key questions will go a long way toward deciding if they’ll live up to Bum Phillips’ great mantra. Last season, Dallas pounded on the door. This year, they’ll try to kick the son of a bitch in.
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