“When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time”
Every game in an NFL team’s season is another critical data point in answering the ultimate question: who are they? For the Cowboys, there were certainly suspicions coming out of training camp that this version of Jerry Jones’ roster was simply not on par with those of recent history. By halftime of Week 2, the seed of that skepticism had found purchase. No matter the hard-fought wins over the Steelers and Giants (and to use a win over New York as a barometer speaks volumes), each week provided mounting evidence that this team is average on its best day and subpar when turning in anything short of that.
And while the lack of talent coupled with Jones’ immutable commitment to not touching the roster created a bleak outlook, the Cowboys are facing a much more dire situation. They aren’t just bad. They know they’re bad. Despite another “comeback” that at least provided a reason to keep watching on Sunday night, a 30-24 loss to the 49ers proved yet again the Cowboys are an uninspired, frustrated team.
The players know the front office essentially did nothing in the offseason to improve their chances for real success. Fair or not, they know their quarterback got his money on the eve of the season opener instead of months prior, which would have signaled a much greater public vote of confidence. They know their head coach and play caller is a dead man walking up and down the sideline. They know their defensive coordinator is a substitute teacher.
Jones and Co. did everything short of flat out saying this season was the launch of a soft rebuild; in fact, they did the opposite by claiming they were “all in.” But their actions showed us, and continue to show us, that this season is not about winning. I’m not suggesting the players aren’t trying or don’t care; their livelihoods are on the line. But in sum, you can’t watch this team every week and avoid coming to the conclusion that confidence, and occasionally effort, are creeping concerns. And unfortunately for Dallas, the league is trending in a direction that will punish you for those deficiencies.
San Francisco now sits with just one more win than Dallas, but the discrepancies in disposition could not be more stark. The 49ers’ best offensive player, Christian McCaffrey, hasn’t played a snap this season. They were without wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Jajuan Jennings on Sunday, and Deebo Samuel was in the hospital with pneumonia last week. Their fourth wideout, Ricky Pearsall (who contributed 38 yards through the air and 39 on the ground) missed the first six weeks of the season after being shot in a robbery attempt in August. Tight end George Kittle missed practice last week with a foot injury.
And somehow, some way, San Francisco ranks seventh in the league in EPA/play. Dallas now sits at 23rd. The front office did Mike McCarthy no favors this offseason, but by the same token, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has been shown no mercy. Yet he figures it out. While the Cowboys’ defense has suffered an epidemic of injuries, the offense is healthy. McCarthy has who he thought he’d have, even if those players aren’t as good as he’d hoped. And this is the best he can come up with.
We’ve seen this movie so many times now that it has become cliche to say, but the Cowboys’ offense is simply bland, boring, and predictable. The most unpredictable play call in Sunday’s loss came on the opening drive, when McCarthy dialed up a zone read between Dak Prescott and fullback Hunter Luepke on third-and-5. Prescott has kept the ball on exactly one zone read this season, per Sports Info Solutions. Luepke had four carries for 14 yards. Now he has five carries for…14 yards. There’s very little motion; very little play-action. It would be generous to say that Prescott’s lack of athleticism at this stage of his career is a non-factor. It is a factor—a massively negative one. He might be one of the five least mobile starting quarterbacks in the NFL.
When Prescott has to move or manipulate the pocket, which is quite often given the inexperience of the line, his footwork falls apart. His off-platform throws feel more likely to be caught by the other team than his own. And to make matters worse, he’s now making inexplicable reads that fly in the face of the football IQ he has always been able to hang his hat on. He’s in a weekly duel with McCarthy to see which one of them can make offensive football look more challenging. It’s tempting to say that Prescott is feeling the pressure to press. However, on both of his interceptions on Sunday, which ran his season total to eight, and a throw on the final drive that should’ve been picked, labeling those passes as “pressing” would indicate that he read the coverage properly and decided to proceed. But in each case, what unfolded was so disastrous, I’m inclined to believe there’s no way he properly diagnosed what he was looking at. Which, unfortunately, is worse.
For his part, McCarthy appears to have fully arrived at his “this is the way I’ve always done it, and this is the way I’m going to keep doing it” stage of his career. It’s true he has less to work with than in recent successful seasons. It is also true that he is pulling a reverse Shanahan and minimizing that talent. These are the players he knew he’d have, and this is what he has come up with. I don’t think he trusts his quarterback. I don’t think he trusts his offensive personnel. And worst of all, I don’t think he trusts himself. I’m going to harp on that early Luepke carry. It’s third-and-5 on the opening drive. You’ve had two weeks to think about this drive. You’re an accomplished offensive mind. This is a playcaller’s “Oh, I’ve got something for them right here, watch this” type of moment. And yet your best answer is to try to fool one of the most instinctive linebackers in the game and hope your fullback turns in the second-longest carry of his career?
Outside of CeeDee Lamb and perhaps Jake Ferguson, the offense doesn’t have anyone who is a reliable yards-after-catch threat. But McCarthy isn’t doing anyone any favors, other than opposing defensive coordinators. In any given game, there might be two snaps where you think, “Well, that was creative.” With a team like the 49ers, that is their entire animating principle. That doesn’t mean it always works for them, but more often than not, it does feel like they’re put in the best position to succeed.
The offense is taking the brunt of the blow here, but the defense clearly is not without blame. They just have legitimate excuses for some of their issues. Effort remains an issue, though. This is one of the worst tackling teams in football. Cornerback Trevon Diggs has never been regarded as one who desires to mix it up physically. But hey, at least he’s aggressive in tracking down reporters who question his play before he even gets his pads off!
The eventual return of Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and DaRon Bland will at least marginally improve the defense’s chances of forcing turnovers, which was the basis for this team’s swagger. (After forcing 26 turnovers last season, it has five takeaways in seven games.) But with the offense as stagnant as it is, and the season slipping away, it might be too late for a vibe shift.
McCarthy probably should have been fired last offseason so that this year could have been treated as a bit of a reset. Instead, the Cowboys did what they always do, and committed only to being non-committal. They set up a make-or-break year for their head coach, did nothing to help boost his chances on the “make” side of things, and he in turn did very little to reduce his chances of landing in the “break” category. This team plays like the front office approaches the entire operation and how Diggs approaches tackling: not really sure what they want to do or if they even want to do it.
Confidence can make up for a lot of shortcomings, yet no one involved in this process is performing like they have a shred of it left.
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