Every offseason, NFL teams produce a video package wrapping up the previous season. Even for the Jaguars and Giants of the world, there is usually a positive spin; a beacon of hope for the future. After a 27-21 road loss to the Falcons on Sunday dropped the Cowboys to 3-5, I am anxiously anticipating the spring release of the package profiling this campaign. If the producers are being honest with themselves, they already have a title:
“Life Comes At You Fast: The 2024 Dallas Cowboys.”
Halfway through the season, it is nearly inconceivable to conjure up memories of the Cowboys playing good offensive football, even though it happened as recently as earlier in this calendar year. A few names have changed, and we’ll get to that. But I swear to you, this actually happened: last season the Cowboys scored more points than any team in the league. They finished second in EPA per play; sixth in yards per play. As I write that, I feel like the grandparent/grandchild meme trying to explain the existence of the CD-ROM to a younger generation. But it happened.
Mike McCarthy was calling plays. Dak Prescott was under center. The top two receivers by catches and targets, CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, the same. Zack Martin, Terrance Steele, and Tyler Smith were all starters on the line. Rico Dowdle has an elevated role this season, but that’s merely a difference of 5.5 carries per game last season increased to 10 per game this year. The personnel is different, but it isn’t that different.
This season the offense ranks 22nd in EPA per play and 20th in points per game.
The common, overarching explanation for this is that the Cowboys are simply playing from too far behind too early in games to play the way they are built to play. In general, I agree with this. But in the last two games, there have been so many offensive failures that have nothing to do with a lopsided score. The inside zone read give to Hunter Luepke on the opening drive last week comes to mind. Against the Falcons regardless of how it felt, the score was not out of hand until late in the game.
Trailing 7-3 early in the second quarter and with Atlanta marching down the field, the Dallas defense forced a rare and desperately needed turnover. Four plays later, facing a third-and-one, Dowdle failed to pick up the needed yard. McCarthy correctly opted to go for it on the next play, but next came a failed jet sweep to Lamb. The defense, and the score, were not to blame for those unsuccessful plays. On the ensuing drive, down 14-3, Dak, Dowdle, and the Dallas offense miraculously found the end zone on an insane scramble and completion. But that came only after a delay of game and a false start. The return of Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland will not ameliorate those mental errors.
Steele committed a false start on the first play of the second half. Ferguson had a false start that turned a second-and-six into second-and-11, and Bryan Anger was punting the ball back to Atlanta three plays later. The Cowboys have been guilty of the ninth-most presnap penalties this season, a statistic that is even more stark when you consider six of the teams ahead of them have played one more game.
Special teams coach John Fassel is widely regarded as one of the best in the league at his job, and deservedly so. But everything about the fake punt on the opening drive of the second half was painfully laughable. The call was questionable: Atlanta was only up 14-10, and Dallas only needed two yards. Perhaps this is when the defense would least expect it! Let’s focus on the call and the resulting execution then. How many things have to go right for that fake to work? We know Fassel has an Allen Iverson-level bag of tricks, so it was stunning to see what felt like a give-up of an attempt. Asking your punter to throw a perfect back-shoulder fade to a defensive back-turned-receiver is as low-percentage as it gets. It might appear cheap to say this in hindsight, but this was the time for McCarthy to hit the override button.
Unless he believed this was the best chance for his team to move the chains. And that isn’t out of the question. Offensive and defensive football strategies are often more interconnected than we acknowledge. But the poor play calling and poor execution by the offense is so glaring, in so many situations, that we have to stop blaming these losses on the defense.
What happened? Has the league simply passed McCarthy by? How is it possible for that to happen in one offseason? McCarthy has never been a heavy proponent of using pre-snap motion to create mismatches. But last year the Cowboys ranked ninth in pass attempts after pre-snap motion and 17th in rush attempts. This season they sit 17th in pass attempts and dead last in rush attempts after motion. The teams at the top of this category are using motion more than they did last season. The league is headed one direction; McCarthy and the Cowboys are headed the other.
Prescott ranks 28th of 30 qualifying QBs in his deployment of play action at just 16.4 percent of his dropbacks. Last season he ranked eighth with 26.5 percent of his dropbacks involving a run fake. The idea that an offense has to rush and rush successfully to use play action effectively is a thoroughly debunked notion. Maybe McCarthy missed these studies when he was holed up in his Football Barn, which would be unfortunate, because his offense needs it now more than ever.
It might not all be on McCarthy, though. A large share of play-action looks require the movement of the quarterback on a designed rollout. For many years, the Cowboys bread-and-butter was a run fake, followed by a Prescott rollout, and a high-low concept involving a tight end underneath and a wide receiver at the next level, both coming from the opposite side of the field in relation to Prescott. Dalton Schultz, now with the Texans, made a lot of money on these calls. Prescott’s lack of mobility has been a hot topic this season. He didn’t exactly look dynamic on his 22-yard scamper, and his day came to an end after a hamstring injury that occurred as he attempted to escape a collapsing pocket. It’s time to accept reality: Dak Prescott is, and for the rest of his career will be, one of the NFL’s least threatening quarterbacks with his legs. Full stop.
Obviously, the offense is a little less talented than it was in the last few seasons, a predictable outcome that falls squarely at the doorstep of Jerry Jones and Co. We’ve talked about it ad nauseum, but the mismanagement of the Prescott and Lamb contract negotiations forced the Cowboys to start two rookie offensive linemen. They’re one capable running back and one pass-catching option short. Maybe sequencing the timing of those deals allows you to retain a player like center Tyler Biadasz, who is playing well in Washington. Tyron Smith has been just average with the Jets, but perhaps he was worth a one-year deal while rookie Tyler Guyton got his feet wet. The Cowboys fanbase was down on Tony Pollard after last season (a little bit too down, in my opinion), but the front office had options besides replacing him with “senioritis” Ezekiel Elliott.
All of that taken into account, though, does not fully explain how disgusting this offense is right now. Greg Olsen mentioned the relationship between the offense and defense several times during Sunday’s broadcast, and he isn’t wrong. But a championship (or hell, average) football team cannot rely on executing on such a highwire balancing act. McCarthy and Prescott lost some players, and that might explain a fall from best to average. It does not excuse a fall from best to nearly worst.
More than ever, offensive strategy in the NFL has turned into a game of asking tough questions and having clever answers. Both head coach and quarterback have something in common: their days of acing the tests appear to be behind them.
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