This salvo probably reads like a broken record: the Stars need support for Miro Heiskanen, they’re still a right-handed defender short, the top four isn’t good enough, defensemen in the system, et cetera, ad infinitum. We’ve heard it all before. For a moment the hockey prayers in Big D were answered when Jim Nill brought in Chris Tanev at last season’s trade deadline. It was a swift bit of business that somehow didn’t even cost the Stars a first-round pick. Then the offseason happened. Tanev landed a mammoth six-year deal from Toronto, and the top four was no more. Dallas pivoted to market goulash for blueline improvement, with Matt Dumba and Ilya Lyubushkin being the unlikely targets.
And that was it. Not only did those two end up being the primary targets, but Nill also added Brenden Smith and brought back the embattled Nils Lundkivst. How is that an improvement for a team that crashed out of the Western Conference finals for the second season in a row? How can the Stars expect to contend with a blueline that feels like it’s back to Square 1, when their biggest defensive problem was the limited duo of Esa Lindell and Jani Hakanpaa?
I took a big-picture approach to answering this question earlier this month in a wider analysis of the roster. Let’s revisit the core of that argument, namely that Dallas heads into this season with two contradictory elements: the blueline got worse, and the roster got better. This is not Part 2, or anything like that. But it’s worth revisiting to maintain perspective. The Stars have been a strong defensive team for several years now, even going back to Jim Montgomery’s brief tenure. They’ve only gotten better over the years, too, primarily through being anchored by the Norris candidate Heiskanen but also with Lindell providing yeoman support and Thomas Harley breathing new life into the group. (It is worth remembering the Stars also went to the Western Conference final in 2023 without Tanev.)
In fact, if we pool every year of the six seasons in the Heiskanen era, Dallas ranks third in expected goals against, just below the big, bad Boston Bruins. And the Stars have done it largely with the same things they used this offseason: matchsticks and gasoline. Whatever you think of Dumba, are you ready to argue that he’s a downgrade from Roman Polak, who was the team’s fourth most-used defender in 2018? Is the committee the team slapped together in 2020, featuring a spiraling John Klngberg and Andrej Sekera, really better than the current iteration? What about in 2022, when Ryan Suter was playing 23 minutes a night, just a minute shy of Heiskanen for the top spot?
This is not to mitigate the loss of Tanev, as Dallas’ numbers with him versus without him are kind of staggering. In his 18 games in victory green, the Stars went from 2.48 goals against per 60 at even-strength to 2.31; their expected goals against improved, too. Tanev was all that and a bag of Takis. But Tanev’s presence isn’t the only path to victory.
Allow me to demonstrate. Because the Stars have been so close these past two seasons, I thought it’d be fun to compare their defensive profile in the postseason—observed goals against per 60 at even-strength and expected goals against—to the playoff league average post-Covid, along with the defensive profile of the other conference finalists over the past two years: Florida, Vegas, and Edmonton. I went this route due to the teams’ recent championship status, and in Edmonton’s case, the barrier to Dallas getting to the final round.
Let’s start with the other teams. Amusingly, Dallas’ contemporaries have been below average based on expected goals against, and as a result, well below Dallas’ average under Pete DeBoer. The Vegas-winning squad of 2023 was particularly mediocre, ranking 21st of 48 playoff rosters in terms of shot quality allowed per game. Within that span, both DeBoer rosters ranked above this year’s Cup winner (Florida with 2.35 expected goals against versus Dallas’ 2.23 and 2.27).
There are a lot of takeaways here, along with a big question: is Dallas’ blueline better than the pre-Tanev blueline from last season? I think so. But that’s where the connection between DeBoer and Nill will be felt the most. If the plan is for someone such as Dumba to replace Tanev, then, yes, this offseason was a failure.
But I suspect that’s not the case. I suspect that Dumba is replacing Suter, which is an upgrade considering just how far superior he is at keeping the puck out of the defensive zone. I also suspect Lyubushkin is replacing Hakanpaa, which is something of a wash; the two are functionally mirror images of each other in transition. Then there’s the biggest hunch of all. I think the Stars hope Lian Bichsel replaces Tanev, at least in time. You don’t draft a player 18th overall to play Joel Hanley minutes, nor has Bichsel given Dallas any reason to be skeptical of his ability to handle more. In my estimation, he was brilliant last season, and across multiple continents.
However, even if the Stars don’t plan on doing with Bichsel what they did with Harley last year, there are other ways to maximize this defense-by-committee. If nothing else, what is it worth to get Heiskanen back on his strong side, most likely with Dumba on the right and Lyubushkin (who averaged 17 minutes a night in Toronto, mostly next to the stellar Morgan Reilly) next to Harley, who himself has yet to reach his peak?
We can get lost in the weeds all day with this, and that’s before discussing what the heck the plan is with Lundkvist. But when we consider how effective Dallas’ defense has been under DeBoer, what becomes clear is that the blueline will not steal games, nor will it have to. Florida made it work with journeymen Branton Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, not to mention a rugged prospect in Niko Mikkola. The Oilers got to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final even with the Darnell Nurse-Cody Ceci pair sabotaging them. I don’t buy the argument that “defense wins championships,” because great teams aren’t one-dimensional. But even if we concede that point, wouldn’t it be more accurate to say that team defense wins championships? And if that’s the case, why can’t Dallas succeed with a defensive makeup similar to Florida’s?
Because ultimately, that’s all Dallas needs from its blueline: support for its true strength, the offense. The Stars didn’t lose the Edmonton series because they couldn’t defend. They lost because Roope Hintz wasn’t healthy; because their power play failed them in the 11th hour; because they were 13th of 16 playoff teams in shots on net per game at even-strength; because Jake Oettinger got beat by Stuart Skinner; and because Matt Duchene and Joe Pavelski disappeared.
The blueline doesn’t need saviors. It just needs chemistry to serve the actual saviors, including Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, and Logan Stankoven. Dumba, Lyubushkin, and Smith don’t need swords. They just need shovels. If they can dig deep enough, perhaps it won’t matter how imperfect they are as long as they trace a clearer path for everyone else.
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