Not many people would argue that Roope Hintz had a great season in 2023-24. Not only was his regular season below his own standard, but his 2024 postseason was also well below the standard of an elite player, period. It says a lot about the Finnish center that it wasn’t enough for him to once again cross the 30-goal mark for the third time in consecutive seasons. With 10 fewer points in more games than the previous season (from 75 to 65) and a disappearing act in the playoffs, six more years at $8.45 million in annual average salary could stop feeling like the sweetheart deal it once was in a hurry.
Let me assure you that’s nonsense. I certainly agree with the loose evaluation of Hintz’s struggles, but I don’t find his performance to be cause for concern. That less charitable impression of Hintz feels like it’s coming from the same psychology that informs why coaches will change strategies after an expected loss versus a lucky win. Production is partially determined by chance; just think of the randomness on this Stars roster and how it’s fed into Matt Duchene’s second half, Joe Pavelski’s abrupt decline, and two contrasting seasons of Mason Marchment. So while points are important, there’s good reason not to judge Hintz’ season based on the raw total. That’s what today is for: a better assessment.
To begin, it’s worth remembering that Hintz is still just 27 and has only spent five years as Dallas’ top center. It wasn’t that long ago that Dallas made the Stanley Cup Finals with Hintz behind a top line of Tyler Seguin with Jamie Benn and Alex Radulov. That makes Hintz a baby in franchise pivot years.
In trying to figure out what to expect from him and whether he’ll bounce back next season, it’s important to establish that this really was a down year in terms of production. I want to get the most obvious excuse out of the way, because it’s something we’ve hashed out before with regards to the impact Pavelski’s shift-to-shift worst had on Hintz and Jason Robertson. As a group, the top line declined one goal per game (per 60) in both observed and expected goals.
But what about the rest? Where does Hintz go from here?
That’s the beauty: he doesn’t. Neither peak nor valley, Hintz is an elevated mesa. Last season marked the third year in a row that Hintz was nominated for the Selke Trophy, which goes to the league’s best defensive forward. More importantly, he received the most votes he ever has, going from 21st in 2022 to 11th in 2023, and then sixth. Hintz belongs in a special class of player whose impact is defined as much by what he does (score goals) as what he doesn’t do (make mistakes). Because of that, I thought it would be interesting to see how he rates among Selke forwards.
Let’s start with how they compared offensively. Below are the last three seasons of Selke winners and runners-up. Because I wanted to avoid the bias of outcomes, I’m only looking at how their offense rates in terms of shot quality. Using Evolving-Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement metric, this is a straight comparison of even-strength shot quality, power play effectiveness, and combined total offense if we assume league-average goaltending.
The forwards are listed by rank in terms of total expected offense (last column). Blue indicates top rank in the category, green means top three, yellow is middle six, and red is bottom three.
As you can see, Hintz’s offense is basically a tier above everyone else not named Auston Matthews, who is the game’s best goal-scorer and a generational shooting talent. While the Selke is not supposed to be about offense, but the trophy is essentially about how well a player performs in his secondary role. After all, a forward who only defends well is merely a Radek Faksa (no offense to the finally departed center). If completeness is the litmus test for the Selke, then offense matters for forwards. The fact that Hintz rates so highly is a testament to his commitment to both ends of the ice.
So what about the defensive side? Hintz doesn’t perform as well as Patrice Bergeron and Aleksander Barkov, but it’s worth noting that he rates as the best Selke forward on the penalty kill.
There are a lot of takeaways here, the first two being that the Selke should really be Matthews’ to lose and that Barkov’s win was well-earned in 2024. But for Stars fans, this should be nonetheless reassuring. Among his Selke peers, Hintz has the second-most threatening offense and is the best penalty killer. That’s a hell of a profile, the kind that warrants the otherwise ubiquitous title of “Most Underrated.”
The purpose of this exercise is twofold: not only to remind fans of how good Hintz is compared to his Selke colleagues but also to think about performance on a spectrum. Next year may or may not end the way 2024 did, and it may or may not end the way 2023 did. That’s not the point. The point is that next year will be a continuation of Hintz’s extended run in the NHL as one of its best defensive forwards, and he still happens to be in the prime of his career.
That’s not to say there is no room for criticism— Hintz needed to be better in the playoffs, for instance. But even that requires context. It’s easy to forget that he tallied 24 points in 19 playoff games in 2023, good for one of the 25 best postseason performances in the last decade. Beyond that, Hintz is due for an upgrade on his right wing. He already has experience with Wyatt Johnston. With Johnston on the top line alongside him and Robertson, the trio took a little over 100 minutes to outscore the opposition 5-0. Their total dominance with the puck, by the way, led the league among forward lines, over even Barkov’s Cup-winning crew with Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Reinhart. But whether it’s Johnston, Seguin, Duchene, Logan Stankoven, or Mavrik Bourque, is there really an incorrect way forward here? (Pun totally intended.)
Hintz’s true value seemed to emerge in his absence, when the Johnston line became the tip of the spear and struggled a bit once the matchups got harder and the air got thinner in increased minutes. I don’t believe that’s a coincidence. Hintz may not always be Dallas’s most productive forward, but he remains its most important. Thanks to his two-way presence, the Stars are chasing more than one trophy. And if he does take home that Selke, you can bet on Dallas’ Cup chances getting that much better.
Author
